2012 investment themes (Shilling)

Courtesy of the Big Picture:

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2012/01/shilling-2012-investment-themes/
The drivers:

  1. Reduced consumer spending in the US
  2. Financial deleveraging
  3. increased government regulation
  4. low commodity prices
  5. rising protectionism
  6. housing market decline
  7. deflation
  8. contraction of state/local government

Positives:

  1. Long-term T-bills. They are the only safe haven in the storm, even if not all that safe.
  2. High-quality stocks with dividends. (consumer products, utilities, dividend > 3%)
  3. Small luxeries. i.e Starbucks
  4. Consumer staples/foods
  5. Dollar vs other currencies, esps commodity dependent countries (Aussie, Canada).
  6. Health care providers and medical office building REITS

    We also favor investments in medical office buildings (MOBs). This includes related outpatient facilities such as ambulatory care facilities, surgery centers, ambulatory surgical centers, and outpatient cancer and wellness centers. MOB demand is forecast to expand 19% by 2019, 11% of it due to the new law and the rest from population growth. The 64 million square feet are required to meet the demand of the new law and compares with a 2010 build of 7 million square feet.

  7. Rental apartments (also REITS)
  8. Productivity enhancers. (I’m looking at you, oracle)
  9. North American engery

and some negatives:

  1. Major country stock markets
  2. Home builders & related
  3. Home ownership
  4. Big-ticket discretionary
  5. Consumer lending
  6. banks
  7. junk bonds (since yeilds are now low)
  8. emerging market bonds
  9. emerging market stocks
  10. commodities
  11. capital equipment
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Posted on January 12, 2012, in Uncategorized and tagged . Bookmark the permalink. Leave a comment.

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